Laboratory of Geocryology. RESEARCH PROJECTS

2009

 
" Thermokarst threat and risk asessment procedure development (regional level) ".
Federal Target Program "Reducing risks and improving outcomes of natural and industrial emergencies in Russian Federation until 2010".
Research manager -  Sergeev DA
The procedure of thermokarst risk assessment was modified for using at regional level (scale 1:200 000) and is primarily recommended for natural-technical systems with linear industrial objects.

"The effect of "external" heat transfer non temperature factors on permafrost zone thermal state "

Program № 13 DES RAS "The permafrost zone evolution in Northern Eurasia, thermal and phase state of permafrost in the global climate and natural environment change. Interaction between land and ocean cryosphere, subaqueous permafrost "
Research manager – Perlshtein GZ
For the moment in Russia including regions with noticeably warming climate permafrost  responds to air temperature changes with different intensity and also ambiguously. This increases the requirements for geocryological forecast authenticity and robustness because it is the only way to develop a rational strategy for economical and enviromental activities on permafrost zones. Predictive model authenticity is mainly defined by the correct designation of upper boundary conditions.  This involves the use of a system of regional climatic factors, i.e. not depending on certain site microclimate.

"The interaction of filterable solutions with permafrost"
Research manager - G.Z. Perlshtein
A physico-mathematical model of filtering solutions interactions with permafrost was generated and a program for its computer implementation was proposed. No similar models were previously reported.

2008-2009

" Theoretical basis of geoecological monitoring in permafrost"
Research manager - G.Z. Perlshtein
Conjugate regional analysis of time and space discontinuity parameters for permafrost, technogenesis and climate characteristics was made using Western Siberia and Northern Trans-Baikal examples. Regional small-scale and local large-scale geoecological monitoring system division was validated. Guidelines to determine monitoring characteristic values were validated, taking into account the territorial specificity of geocryological conditions, technogenesis nature, and climatic characteristics and cryogenic processes dynamics.

2008

 

" Thermokarst threat and risk evaluation procedure development (regional level) "
Federal Target Program " Reducing  risks and improving outcomes of natural and industrial emergencies in Russian Federation until 2010".
Research manager - D. A. Sergeev
The procedure allows to evaluate semiquantitatively the thermokarst  risk development at the local level (scale 1:10 000) and is primarily recommended for natural-technical systems with linear industrial objects.

 

 "Mathematical modeling of Arctic permafrost zone evolution based on a combination of deterministic and probabilistic methods"
Program № 14 DES RAS
Research manager - G.Z. Perlshtein
1. Development of approaches to prove the combination of deterministic and probabilistic methods of quantitative geocryological  forecast was continued.  A numerical simulation program for the evolution of permafrost zone was used. The program considered time-space inhomogeneity  parameters of "external" heat transfer and thermophysical properties of rocks.
2.  The operational process for technological procedures which use layer by layer freezing of ice-ground mixtures (enriching factory waste storage, ice crossing, etc.) was validated. It was based on the probability evaluation of  undesired event due to random deviations of daily air temperature from monthly average values.
3. Probablistic assessments of thermokarst activization influenced  by climate warming for different rock conditions were made for central Yakutia

2006-2008

« Permafrost catastrophic processes in global warming "
Program №16p of RAS Presidium "Global Environment Changes: Natural Disasters”
Research manager - G.Z. Perlshtein

  1. Correlation of permafrost conditions forming global, regional and local factors was analyzed. Numerical simulation of permafrost rocks dynamics under different period climatic oscillations was made for lowland Transbaikalia regions. Results indicate that there is a great impact of mountain relief and vertical permafrost zonation on temperature conditions and permafrost zone thickness.
  2. There were distinguished seven large technical systems  based on scale, level of effects to the environment and ecological disruption details: hydrotechnic, military-industrial, linear structures, mining, city-industrial, agricultural, and timber cutting. Industrial impacts lead to essentially more significant local changes in geocryological conditions than the climate dynamics.
  3. Permafrost dynamics mathematical modeling was made for northern West Siberia until 2050 with different trends of  air temperature changes. Minimum trends -0.007 ... -0.014 ° C / year. Maximum - 0.048-0.86 ° C / year. Forecast maps of permafrost reaction to climate warming by 2050 were created for a maximum trend of mean annual air temperature increase (0.048-0.051 ° C / yr.). and with trends of air temperature 0.003-0.01 ° C / year.
  4. Calculation of seasonal and perennial defrosting depth changes and seasonal ground freezing  by the maximum air temperature trend was made for two regions of northern West Siberia:
    • Nadym town region (with an initial medium ground temperature 1.9 ° C and -0.8 ° C);
    • Marre-Sale region (initial medium ground temperature -3.4 ° C).
  5. A set of selection criteria for potentially dangerous areas based on impact on construction degree was established for northern West Siberia. Geological, geomorphological, cryogenic and other parameters were included.
  6. Local environment inhomogeneities affecting the temperature conditions of permafrost analysis was performed for northern West Siberia. A system of parameters to establish the criteria of permissible impact on cryogenic geosystems was proposed.
    Mathematical estimation methods for the distribution of environment heterogeneity, i.e. surface conditions, soil characteristic that affect the permafrost dynamics, were proposed.

 "Climate dynamics and geocryological conditions impact to regional runoff and icing formation of Lena river mountain catchment basin."
Grant № 06-05-64959a
Research manager - D. A. Sergeev
Numeric simulation of rock temperature profile and hydrobalance calculations were performed for South Yakutia. The main conclusion was that atmospheric precipitation earth leakage in areas without permafrost have a massive impact on the temperature field and permafrost configuration of on a relatively large depth. Probable softening of geocryological conditions would lead to talik zone area increase. There would be consecutive lowering of flooded condition peak in early summer and its prolongation  by 1.5-2.0 months. The described mechanism may be of a major importance to explain the correlation between atmospheric precipitation dynamics and river runoff in condition of secular changes tendency discrepancy.

 

 "Non-temperature factors thermal transfer between annual thawed layer and  atmosphere"
Grant № 05-05-64390a
Research manager - G.Z. Perlshtein
Climatic data on the territory of permafrost zone was collected including "non-temperature” thermal transfer factors, calculated heat current from atmosphere to surface with 0 ° C (q0) temperature values. In the permafrost zone southern border values q0  were close to 0. A forecast for ground temperature conditions changes was prepared for oil and gas deposit area in Yamal considering non-temperature thermal factors the transfer. Guidelines  for natural heat and permafrost zone cold resources use were prepared.

APPLIED SCIENTIFIC PROJECT:

2009

A list of the route ESPO-I sites with complex geological conditions was made. Generalization and typification of geotechnical sites of monitoring (by order from ESRC) was performed.
Danger zone reports based on available materials on geotechnical surveys analysis (were generated for ESRC.