LABORATORY OF THE SEISMIC RISK

Chief: Valeriy Ivanovich Larionov
Dr. Sci. (Techn.)
Tel: (495) 916-80-56; Fax (495) 916-83-99
Email: lar@esrc.ru

The research activity at the laboratory is aimed at the development of theoretical and methodical fundamentals of assessing earthquake consequences and seismic risk taking into account the induced secondary processes of natural and technonatural origin; assessment and mapping of seismic risk, development of risk-reduction measures; assessment of seismic safety of the population and territories.

MAIN RESEARCH AREAS

  • Development of mathematical models of seismic hazard, vulnerability and risk of population; economic objects construction sites including main oil and gas pipelines, mineral deposits, petroleum chemical plants, life-support objects, etc.
  • Development of regional models of seismic hazard and vulnerability of risk elements.
  • Development of mathematical models for the consideration of secondary technonatural and natural factors in seismic risk assessment.
  • Development of applied methods of analysis and modeling sources and scenarios of human-induced disasters with
    variable initiating factors using Geoinformation System (GIS) technologies.
  • Development of methods of seismic and complex risk assessment and mapping at different levels.
  • Development of GIS projects to estimate natural and technonatural disasters and to prevent and eliminate large-scale
    emergency situations at the territories of RF, big industrial cities and economic objects.
  • Development of GIS projects to estimate consequences of possible earthquakes and seismic risk considering secondary
    factors and determination of measures to reduce the possible hazard.
  • Development of special GIS for assessing earthquake consequences in online mode at regional, national and global
    levels.
  • Development of database on earthquake consequences in Russia and other countries of the world during the last 100 years.
  • Study of error effect in detection of parameters of strong earthquakes made by different Russian
    and world seismological services and reliability of online estimations of possible losses received using special GIS.
  • Study of influence of regional laws of seismic intensity attenuation and vulnerability of risk elements on reliability of online estimation of possible losses received by special GS.
  • Participation in state ecological expertise of major constructions projects.
  • Participation in development and improvement of regulatory documents in assessing risk of natural and technonatural disasters, prevention and reduction of the disasters’ consequences.
  • Participation in federal and regional programs on reducing risks and mitigating consequences of natural and humaninduced emergencies.

MAIN RESEARCH RESULTS

  • The seismic hazard in Krasnodar krai was analyzed proceeding from the literature data, the features of earthquakes scenario were determined within the most hazardous zones of possible earthquake centers (PEC) at the territory of region.
  • The procedure of consideration of secondary (induced) technogenous processes (explosions, fire, hazardous chemical agents atmospheric emission, etc) was developed for the assessment of strong earthquakes consequences and seismic risk.
  • The levels of individual seismic risk (ISR) were calculated using the maps of general seismic zoning (GSZ) OSR-97A,B,C and of possible accidents caused by strong earthquakes; the maps of seismic risk were compiled considering losses directly from earthquakes and from secondary technogenic processes that can be applied to the population of Krasnodar krai.
  • The models and algorithms of situation assessment during largescale natural accidents (earthquakes, flood, tsunami) were developed for the territories of big cities. The laboratory collected databases on natural hazards (earthquake, tsunami, flood, hydrometeorological conditions, etc.) for the towns of Karnodar, Novorossiysk, Yaroslavl, Novokuznetsk, Krasnoysrsk, and
    Petropavlovsk –Kamchatskiy.  The map of individual seismic risk for population of Russian Federation created by the
    Laboratory specialists together with the Center of Emergency Situation Study (TsiEKS) was included into the “Atlas of natural and humaninduced hazard of Russian Federation” published by the Ministry of Emergency of Russia in 2005.
  • The Laboratory has studied influence of error factor in assessment of strong earthquake parameters by different Russian and world services that provide express information on reliability of loss estimation in online mode.
  • General regulations of risk assessment and scientific results on using GIS technologies to estimate population and territories vulnerability are included into the monograph “Encyclopedia of Safety: Construction, Industry, Ecology”, Nauka Publishers, 2005.
  • Scientific results and general regulations of assessing consequences of natural and technonatural disasters obtained in the laboratory are used in development of training software in the reduction of consequences of floods, earthquakes, forest fires
    and explosions to teach students of universities specialized in “Life safety” and during development of training materials for the course “General life safety requirements” for Moscow students of 9-11 school graduate.